US Cancer Incidence Declining, but New Cancer Diagnoses May Exceed 2 Million in 2024

US cancer incidence and mortality rates have decreased in recent years, according to the American Cancer Society’s latest report on cancer statistics, published in CA: A Cancer Journal for Clinicians.

The report also suggests, however, that incidence rates have increased for some cancers, and researchers predict there will be more than 2 million new cancers diagnosed in 2024.

To compile this report, researchers analyzed incidence data collected by central cancer registries through 2020 and mortality data collected by the National Center for Health Statistics through 2021.

The data showed that cancer incidence rates in 2020 were down 9% from 2019, but changes in incidence varied by cancer type.

Prostate cancer incidence has risen by 3% per year since 2014, female breast cancer incidence has increased by about 0.6% per year since the mid‐2000s, and the incidence of uterine cancer has increased by 1% per year since the mid-2000s.

On the other hand, thyroid cancer incidence has decreased by 2% per year since 2014, lung cancer incidence has declined since 2006 by 2.5% per year in men and by 1% per year in women, and the incidence of non‐Hodgkin lymphoma decreased by nearly 1% per year in men and women during 2015-2019.

The incidence of colorectal cancer has decreased since 2011, but this is driven by the trend in adults aged 65 years and older, according to researchers. The incidence of colorectal cancer has remained stable in adults aged 50-64 years since 2011 and has increased 1% to 2% per year in adults younger than 55 years since the mid‐1990s.

The data also showed that 5-year survival rates for all cancers have increased, from 49% in the mid-1970s to 69% during 2013-2019. The researchers highlighted that the 5-year survival rate for chronic myeloid leukemia more than tripled during that time (increasing from 22% to 70%), and the 5-year survival rate for distant-stage melanoma more than doubled from 2009 to 2015 (increasing from 18% to 38%).

The mortality rate for all cancers decreased by 33% from 1991 through 2021, leading to 4.1 million fewer deaths. The researchers noted that this decrease is driven by lung cancer death rates, which have declined by 59% in men and 36% in women from their respective peaks in 1990 and 2002.

Female breast cancer death decreased 42% from its peak in 1989 through 2021, and prostate cancer death decreased 53% from its peak in 1993.

The researchers also made projections for 2024. They predict there will be 2,001,140 new cancers diagnosed and 611,720 cancer deaths this year.

In men, prostate, lung, and colorectal cancers will make up 48% of the new cancer cases, and prostate cancer alone will account for 29% of diagnoses. In women, breast, lung, and colorectal cancers will account for 51% of diagnoses, including 32% for breast cancer alone.

This article originally appeared on Cancer Therapy Advisor